Photo by shen liu on Unsplash
As winter testing has been an gone and we are less than a week away from the first media day of the year it is a good time to take a look at the running order, at least, what I think it is.
As of right now, I would think it would be fair to assume that Haas are 10th and last. Even with their own incidents they still had more time than Williams with their engine issues but were the only team not to clock 700 laps during testing. Not only that they were tenth in outright lap time. Albeit they never used the C5 tyre and if tyre-corrected they would not be last. But with the slowest time and the least laps and the conservative approach to understanding this years car as they could not last years, makes it seem a long time before Haas push forward.
Next is very tight but I’d believe that Williams are just ever so slightly behind Alfa Romeo. Williams who were so atrocious last year have seemed to make good steps forward and were only hindered this year by an engine they source in rather than their own work. With Alfa Romeo it’s a bit more hazy to guess. Their best time was set by their reserve driver Robert Kubica who was on average 0.625 seconds slower than rookie teammate George Russell last year and never out-qualified the rookie. So despite them being slower than Williams on the time sheet I believe there is room for adjustment with this team.
Alpha Tauri is next on the list. At the beginning of the season I can see this car sitting in a very lonely seventh in the Constructors Standings. If tyre-corrected they were seventh quickest on the timesheet and were sixth in laps completed. Right now the easily have the pace to be ahead of the three behind, but aren’t quick enough to quite be apart of the front of the midfield.
The next three are the most difficult to judge. McLaren, Renault and Racing point. Unbelievably close are these three teams. Racing Point have been smart in taking significant influences from last years World Championship winning Mercedes W10 and implementing it into their own RP20. I would say they’ve been clever. They have not copied the car, just used a lot of features and blended them to make their own car.
McLaren and Renault looking to build on previous years but with all three teams setting their best time on different tyres this is one is more difficult to do. As of right now it looks like McLaren take sixth, literally thousandths of a second behind Renault in what looks like an unbelievably close battle. Then the Racing point taking fourth being a tenth or two up the road on the two teams behind, impressively as, out of the three, they set the second best time on the slowest tyre out of three, the C3. Fourth should be comfortably theirs and if anything they should be looking forward.
Now, Ferrari. What is going on? In my opinion, it’s simple, they are sandbagging. This is due to two things in my mind. One being last years testing and how they over-performed and ended up trying to catch up to Mercedes throughout the season. So this year they are understanding the car better, put some upgrades on in Australia and be better than what we think. Also, I believe the engine has been very much turned down over concerns of the FIA’s investigation into the power unit of last year. Now with the FIA “… could not prove Ferrari engine illegal.” in the past week so as much as they were worried in pre-season that worry should be wiped away. Despite all of this, I still believe they are behind Mercedes and Red Bull.
Red Bull are an intriguing team this year. They are quietly confident and had a very promising pre-season test. At the start of the year though I don’t think they’ll be able to fight Mercedes all the way in the opening two races and will be playing catch up early on. Easily second, but as much as they improved, a team you can believe are putting a bit more resources into next years car already as the regulations will change. Now that is not a fact, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Adrian Newey already has a good understanding of what he wants to do with the car.
First, this year, I believe is the easiest thing to call heading into the season. Yes Mercedes DAS system is tricky on the eye and looks flashy. But the real work has gone into the rear suspension that sets it apart from any other. Just exquisite work. That alongside the fact their fastest time of a 1:15.732 was 0.537 seconds quicker than anybody else they were also the only team to exceed 900 laps in testing, a very impressive feat. Now speed they have, the one concern they have on the season ahead is the reliability of their power unit. It has had its issues in testing which could hinder them. One thing for sure though is that when it is working, the W11 is one very special bit of machinery.
Sports Insider by Gerren Scapens 